Tversky & Kahnemann (1971, p2) shows that misconceptions of chance are not limited to naïve subjcts – this is the gambler’s fallacy… A summary of the article: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.
Chance is commonly viewed as a self-correcting process in which a deviation in one direction induces a deviation in the opposite direction to restore the equilibrium. Authors A Tversky, D Kahneman. Science, 185(4157), Summary In this paper, Tversky Kahneman give an overview of three commonly used heuristics that lead to systematic biases: representativeness, availability, and anchoring. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman Many decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events such as the outcome of an elec- tion, the guilt of a defendant, or the future value of the dollar. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1974).

This article by Kahneman and Tversky (1974) is still a classic description of the main heuristics that people use to judge probability and frequency.
Heuristics can be thought of as mental 'rules of thumb' that people employ for all kinds of judgements. It explains the 3 heuristics gives a fallacy of each heuristic and gives examples. 1974 Sep 27;185(4157):1124-31. doi: 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124. These beliefs are usually expressed in statements such as "I think that...," "chances are


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