“the largest investor in the Belarusian economy. But we and our allies would view it as destabilization of the situation,” the Pentagon official said. Russian media is therefore framing the ongoing protests in Belarus as a coordinated globalist attack on Russia.

There is a better way. This is nothing but a Russophobic provocation and an attempt to spoil relations with Russia.

Pro-Russian media in Belarus has recently advocated both a parliamentary republic and further development of the Union with Russia. They have helped Lukashenka to regain control over the internal situation and thereby reducing the risk of a regime change (not controlled by Kremlin). The Russian hybrid war in Belarus offers Ukraine a unique opportunity to understand the full extent of the Russian aggression in Ukraine without the distraction of the so-called “.
The demonstrations, organization, and key messages are different. Another demonstration was soon scheduled for December 20, the day Lukashenko and Putin agreed to meet again. They provide sort of a natural partner for US efforts to help them strengthen their sovereignty. I think that is the number one interest of the Belarusian military. In contrast, Ukraine has on the face of it reduced Russian control over its economy. Many view this as the Kremlin’s plan for the “soft annexation” of Belarus. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/12/21/why-putins-threat-to-belarus-cant-be-ignored/. If the constitutional reform ends up turning Belarus into a parliamentary republic and/or formalizing the Belarusian integration with Russia via the Union State mechanism, the “soft annexation” will have become a reality. Hybrid War is not about the physical domain (e.g. For example, military medicine, cybersecurity, border security – these are areas where our cooperation would be relatively non-controversial.

For more than a dozen years, Lukashenko’s regime has been hit with sanctions from both the European Union and United States for its human rights record. RSS politics category. His leadership (even if unwilling) of the process will “preserve the formalities of Belarus’s sovereignty, constitutional continuity, and Russian non-interference in the country’s affairs.” Having the constitutional amendments approved at a national referendum would further strengthen this impression. In Putin’s opinion, the Russian, Ukrainian and Belarussian peoples are almost the same due to the historical, ethnical, cultural, and religious links. Photo: Belta.by. Greater economic ties, provided, of course, if Belarus is able to guarantee that investments will have actual property rights protected, that the business climate appropriate for foreign investment to be secured and so forth. But if Belarus wants Western investors – I think they do – this provides a platform for showing that there are open for business. Michael Carpenter and Vlad Kobets describe this as a “soft annexation” of Belarus.

One area of particular concern identified by iSANS involves online space and information security. Russian media have reverted to many of their key messages used since the start of the Revolution of Dignity. Belarus opposition protest leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya during the rally supporting her in Brest, Belarus. Our prevailing approach to sanctions has manifestly failed to change the Kremlin’s behavior. Consequences of Hybrid War for Europe (Part 2), Keir Giles concludes that a “The presence of Russian forces in Belarus — along with the air and missile forces they could be expected to bring with them — would substantially alter the security situation for a wide area of Central Europe.”. As Russia seeks a deeper integration with Belarus, the masses in Minsk are protesting against a “soft annexation.” It’s time for the West to take notice. Ideally, there will come a time when president Lukashenka will see civil society as an ally making efforts to strengthen the country’s sovereignty. Why Putin’s Threat to Belarus Can’t Be Ignored, A Letter to TAI’s Subscribers and Readers, How Chinese Corruption Spreads Misery Abroad, The Financial Infrastructure of Corruption. Is There a Recipe for Democratic Success. August 2020. The main battlespace is the mind and consequently, the “cognitive spaces of both populations and key decision- and policymakers.”. A union state run by Putin would be a huge blow to Belarus’s sovereignty and independence. The system in Belarus is a dictatorship and there is not in interest amongst government officials to have a political opening. Hybrid War and consequences for Europe. Ambassador is going back to Minsk. Michael Carpenter, Vlad Kobets, & David J. Kramer. Not only is this important for preserving and protecting the independence of Belarus, it also helps counter Kremlin efforts to expand its malign influence in Belarus and beyond. Russia can afford to lose neither Ukraine nor Belarus to democracy (and consequently, the West). Assessing the evolving situation in Belarus through the prism of the. The military part of the Hybrid War has the same features as in Ukraine. Obviously, in political terms, the opposition is not seen as ally for obvious reasons. And one thing I should mention on civil society – each time I go to Belarus, I am impressed: there are a lot of civil society groups operating within certain strict boundaries. Russia will intervene militarily if it is in danger of “losing” Belarus to the West. In March 2016, Michael Carpenter visited …
But I think expanding that dialogue to those other dimensions will actually enable us to have more leverage to push for improvements in human rights and civil society dimensions. However, since a lot of the investments transit through other countries (e.g. And then finally, human rights and democracy, especially space for civil society – I think it is crucial.

Part 1, Portnikov: Belarus should be seen through prism of Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution, but not 2014 Euromaidan, While nobody is watching, COVID-19 may allow Russia to reach its strategic aim and objectives, Belarusian transition more likely to follow Armenian rather than Ukrainian scenario, Lukyanov says, The basis for a peaceful resolution of the war in eastern Ukraine, Propaganda contractors: Russian state TV airs staged interview to denigrate Ukraine, Ukraine’s “main musical event of the year” featuring 10 centuries of sound to be streamed online, These Rt graphs show how fast COVID-19 is spreading in Ukraine. But the partnership can be leveraged by the US. I think those areas would be the natural field between the US and Belarus. While Belarus has avoided direct military aggression and the loss of territory, it has not avoided the deployment of Russian armed forces and security forces on its territory. “In a country in which the power and independence of parliament is limited and fundamental freedoms are restricted for both voters and candidates, parliamentary elections are in danger of becoming a formality,” she added. Vlad Kobets is the Executive Director of ISANS. Having succeeded in evicting a Ukrainian war-time president while simultaneously strengthening the pro-Russian forces in both the parliament and key governmental positions, Ukraine serves as an example of what will follow. 14 September President Putin and President Lukashenka agreed to hold combined exercises on the territory of Belarus almost every month during the next year, allowing Russia to rotate forces in and out of the country (and reinforce the forces already there if needed) under the pretext of exercises. He also serves on the Jamestown Foundation board of directors. In March 2016, Michael Carpenter visited Belarus and met with president Alyaksandr Lukashenka. Sounds familiar? It is neither anti-EU, nor a pro-EU revolution, it is a democratic revolution. Lukashenka has suggested reducing the president’s powers in appointing judges, while the opposition wants to change the constitution back to its original form. You may change your browser configuration and withdraw from getting cookies. We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites. Rights need to be respected for foreign investors to even consider Belarus as destination. Hans Petter Midttun is educated at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, the Norwegian National Defence Command and Staff College and the Norwegian Defense College, as well as education from the Federal Defence Forces of Germany. Tags: Belarus, Russia's hybrid war, Ukraine, 2020/10/01 - 18:06 • Recent history is full of examples of nations leaving its sphere of interest because of their aspiration for democracy. Socor describes it as the first-ever Russian regime-changing operation in its “near abroad.”, According to Dzianis Ivashyn, new candidates for the presidential election appeared only three months earlier. I think if the US and our European partners like Poland, where we are sitting today, engage Belarus more, there is also more scope for pushing for more space for Belarusian civil society. As former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Michael Carpenter speaks on longstanding Belarusian policies towards Ukraine. Effectively monopolizing this role, Lukashenka made it impossible for the Kremlin to playoff Belarusian politicians and interest groups against each other.”, Alyaksandr Lukashenka during an interview with Russian media journalists.

A lot of American foreign policy pundits, but also foreign policy makers, underscore that supporting the sovereignty of the countries on Russia’s periphery is vital to U.S. national security interests and the idea of Europe Whole Free and At Peace. Michael Carpenter and Vlad Kobets describe this as a “soft annexation” of Belarus. The two nations are linked closely militarily. The Russian hybrid war in Belarus offers Ukraine a unique opportunity to understand the full extent of the Russian aggression in Ukraine without the distraction of the so-called “war in Donbas.” The development within the political, economic, and information sphere is of particular relevance for Ukraine. Just one of the projects – a nuclear power plant – is estimated at 10 billion in US dollar terms. What Russia Really Has in Mind for Belarus 08.09.2020 Michael Carpenter, Vlad Kobets Popular protests against the authoritarian regime of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus have left Western leaders anxious about how Russia will respond. Are Belarusians fundamentally rural Orthodox Christians? Last month’s parliamentary elections, widely panned by international observers, were like a Soviet redux wherein the regime parties dominated every seat in parliament and the opposition was not even given the chance to compete. But we and our allies would view it as destabilization of the situation,” the Pentagon official said. Published on: December 21, 2019 .


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