If this stretches on for a 4th consecutive year, then it’ll truly be something for the record books.
With respects to temperature, we can clearly see that most of the country is in the below-average category. The graphic below shows the earliest snowfalls in Kansas City history, the winter season that followed them, and the snow totals of those winters in both KC and Saint Louis. As I pointed out earlier, Kansas City had never seen (until the past 3 winters) 3 seasons in a row with less than 10 inches of snow. I’ve noticed this myself, in that more active storm patterns in October and November often lead into active, snowy winters. 2016-2017 gave an even lower total, 4.9 inches, and 2017-2018 wasn’t much better, clocking in at 7.7 inches.
I do anticipate variations to happen, however, and periods of fairly active weather will lead to rapidly-changing temperatures.
It’s my hope that it’ll be informative and (perhaps) accurate. I’m now a sophomore in college. For both cities, the past 3 years – a third of a decade – have brought the equivalent snow of 1 average winter. Kansas City 44 ° Sponsored By. Indeed, there is data to back this up, and thus it has become one of the only tools we have to predict weather months ahead of time. In the November-January and then again in December-February time slots, a huge blob of oranges and reds sits squarely over our neck of the woods. Will Saint Louis manage to see a decent winter? This is an indicator that early-season snowfalls in this region have portended the arrival of snowier winters, not only in the city where the snow happened, but in the surrounding regions. This represents precipitation amounts 2-3 inches below normal. To put this in perspective, the last time I saw a big snow (6 or more inches in a single storm) was when I was a freshman in high school. The blues and greens in this case would represent a wetter-than-usual pattern, whereas the yellows, oranges, and reds are drier-than-usual. Snowy or dry? Before we can take a stab at answering these questions, we must first analyze a few pieces of information.
Missouri has borne witness to snowy winters under both El Nino and La Nina, and it’s also experienced dry winters under both as well. Will it pile up in Columbia, Springfield, or Rolla like it did many years back? 2015-2016 saw 10.9 inches, whereas 2016-2017 had an abysmal (and near record-low) 3.2 inches. It probably won’t be an unprecedented or record-breaking season, but it should produce at least as much snow (if not more) than is usual. Sunday Night, a large portion of Missouri saw its first snow of the season. There was a lot of hype about "pre-treating" roads today but those efforts didn't make it far outside of the loop and nowhere near neighborhood street. However, I’ll go ahead and try to figure something out here. "If you don't like the weather, stick around… it'll change". So far, we’ve taken a look at a few factors that might give us a hint as to what the upcoming winter will be like.
I want to thank you all for reading my official winter prediction. But ones like this?
Although this has quieted down in recent days, the jet stream is still slinging storm systems through large parts of the country. The pattern has been more conducive to heavy rain and even snow over much of the Midwest and Great Plains. At no other point in recorded history has Kansas City ever seen 3 … Each winter, you probably hear talk about “El Nino” or “La Nina” when it comes to predicting the weather. Additionally, the past 3 winters in Missouri have been bona-fide disappointments. Furthermore, jet stream patterns tend to repeat throughout the winter, and it isn’t uncommon to see similar-looking storm systems recur every couple of months. Note: The “Analysis / Rationale” section takes up about 900 words. With regards to precipitation, there are signals for this winter to run drier than usual. 0.2 inches of it was even measured at KCI International Airport, officially making this the earliest measurable snow on record in Kansas City! Severity Index (0-10, with 0 being not severe and 10 being catastrophic): 4. Well, Newton says that “Objects in motion tend to stay in motion.” Thus, it makes sense that chaotic jet stream patterns in the Fall might well equate to chaotic patterns in winter. This is an unprecedented time for those living in western Missouri. Looking at the pattern, it’s clear that we’re in a different regime than we have been over the last several years. Winter 2018-19 had it all, ... the earliest-in-season snowfall on record blanketed Kansas City and Wichita, Kansas. For one, we’ve got an El Nino pattern, which looks like it might knock our chances for a decent snow season down a bit. Now, this is extremely tough to predict, and it’s almost impossible to nail down any further than a few weeks ahead of time. Although I do believe we’ll have a very active storm pattern at times, I think that these active phases will be separated by long periods of tranquil weather. This is good news for those who enjoy sunny and dry conditions. At no other point in recorded history has Kansas City ever seen 3 consecutive winters deliver less than 10 inches of snow. In Saint Louis, there was still a correlation, as 7/10 winters following an early Kansas City Snowfall ended up above average for them. Furthermore, in winters where an early season snow fell in Kansas City, the following winters ended up with, on average, 6 more inches (133%) of snow than usual. I’ve witnessed setups that I haven’t seen in 4 or 5 years, back when snow totals were falling between 20 and 30 inches a winter. Generally, it appears that weak El-Nino winters in Missouri start off chilly, but then turn slightly milder (though still cooler than normal) towards the end of the season.
For our most important metric of the season, I spent quite a bit of time considering my prediction. Greens and blues represent below-average temperatures, whereas yellows and oranges represent warmer conditions. Brutal, or… comparably tame? The first set of images depicts temperature trends for weak El-Nino events. For snow lovers, this should be an okay season! View all posts by Jacob Vanderpool. However, the super-active pattern and record early snowfall that we’ve seen in Missouri is just too much to ignore. It is this question which I will be attempting to answer today. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. Is it usual for there to be dry phases?
No. So, what’s it going to be? It may feel much harsher than it actually is, given that most around Missouri are currently used to snowfall amounts of less than half of average. As was discussed earlier, El Nino patterns (particularly weak ones) lend themselves quite often to dry weather here in Missouri. Additionally, I just don’t think that it’s reasonable to expect this snow drought to continue. This winter, we’re looking at a weak El Nino pattern. ( Log Out / Based on this, I’d venture to say that we’re looking at an active winter ahead. El Nino, which is Spanish for “The Boy” is used to describe warmer-than-usual Pacific waters. But what does this mean for us? As you can see from the chart, an early-season snowfall in KC was followed, in 8/10 cases in Kansas City, by a snowier-than-usual winter. It has also been nearly 5 years since many Missourians have seen a major storm system. Toggle ... with NOAA warning that its forecast does not mean the winter of 2018-2019 will not feature major ... periods of cold temperatures and snowfall … And I predict that we’ll see a winter that is somewhat snowier than usual, and many cities will likely receive as much snow this winter as they have in the past 3 combined. I predict a fairly middle-of-the-road winter, with southern and western portions of the state being slightly cooler than normal. For Saint Louis, the story has been much the same. To start off with, let’s look at the current ENSO pattern. ENSO, or El Nino – Southern Oscillation, describes the state of the temperature of the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. So, will Kansas City snap a 3-year streak with less than 10 inches of snow? Enjoy the weather, and have a great day! With more cold weather on the way tonight, and freeze and frost warnings covering much of the state, I (along with many others) are wondering, what does this upcoming winter have in store?
Another thing I’d like to look at here is the fact that many Missourians have already seen snow this season. I predict that this winter will prove to be an end to the recent snow drought. ( Log Out / Yes. Thus, I think that slightly below average precip is likely, however, this could be thwarted if we have several strong storm systems pass through in just the right places. As a general rule, I expect a near to above average winter in the snow department. I’ve included the package of images below to demonstrate. However, there’s really no way to know for sure. This is most pronounced in the North and in the Midwest, where average winter temperatures during a weak El-Nino event range from 2-4 degrees below normal. I am a 19-year-old who loves science, writing, music, and most of all, God. I did struggle quite a bit with this prediction, given as our storm track could be quite strong this winter. 2016-2017 gave an even lower total, 4.9 inches, and 2017-2018 wasn’t much better, clocking in at 7.7 inches. Sony A7rii & Canon FD 70-210 F1.4 Snowfall totals for 2018-2019 Season (2014, place, inches, moving) User Name: Remember Me: Password : Please ... Kansas City's total to date is 8.3 inches. ( Log Out / Indeed, this pattern was so active that it even gave much of the state snow on Sunday night, and resulted in the earliest measurable snowfall in recorded Kansas City history. ( Log Out / What truly has the final say in how our winter shapes up is the jet stream track.